{
  "milestone": "M4",
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-05T09:09:06+00:00",
  "is_real": true,
  "warning": null,
  "verdict": {
    "should_retrain": false,
    "action": "watch",
    "severity": "alert",
    "rule": "R3b_distribution_without_measured_harm",
    "rationale": "3 distribution signals are alerting (feature, target, prediction), but the frozen model's error was measured over the same windows and did not degrade. Inputs moved and the model tracked them: that is drift worth watching, not proof the champion needs refitting.",
    "signals": {
      "feature": "alert",
      "target": "alert",
      "prediction": "alert",
      "performance": "ok"
    },
    "reasons": [
      {
        "drift_type": "feature",
        "severity": "alert",
        "metric": "psi",
        "value": 21.292244,
        "threshold": 0.2,
        "detail": "13/14 feature(s) above PSI 0.2; worst is demand_roll_max_24h at PSI 21.292"
      },
      {
        "drift_type": "target",
        "severity": "alert",
        "metric": "psi",
        "value": 0.316566,
        "threshold": 0.2,
        "detail": "actual demand PSI 0.317, mean moved +698 MWh between the reference and current windows"
      },
      {
        "drift_type": "prediction",
        "severity": "alert",
        "metric": "psi",
        "value": 1.300909,
        "threshold": 0.2,
        "detail": "forecast PSI 1.301, mean moved -2,522 MWh (label-free signal: available before the actuals arrive)"
      }
    ],
    "evaluated_at_utc": "2026-08-05T09:09:01+00:00"
  },
  "thresholds": {
    "psi_warn": 0.1,
    "psi_alert": 0.2,
    "ks_p_alert": 0.01,
    "psi_bins": 10,
    "max_categorical_levels": 24,
    "min_samples": 200,
    "drifted_share_warn": 0.15,
    "drifted_share_alert": 0.3,
    "mae_degradation_warn": 0.15,
    "mae_degradation_alert": 0.3,
    "mape_degradation_warn_pp": 0.5,
    "mape_degradation_alert_pp": 1.0,
    "rolling_window_hours": 168
  },
  "windows": {
    "strategy": "time-ordered train / reference / current; the booster is fitted on the train window only, so both scored windows are out of sample",
    "panel_start_utc": "2024-08-01T21:00:00+00:00",
    "panel_end_utc": "2026-08-04T17:00:00+00:00",
    "reference_start_utc": "2026-07-19T00:00:00+00:00",
    "current_start_utc": "2026-08-02T00:00:00+00:00",
    "reference_days": 14,
    "current_days": 14,
    "horizons_h": [
      1,
      2,
      3,
      4,
      5,
      6,
      7,
      8,
      9,
      10,
      11,
      12,
      13,
      14,
      15,
      16,
      17,
      18,
      19,
      20,
      21,
      22,
      23,
      24
    ],
    "origin_stride_hours": 6,
    "rows": {
      "train": 66020,
      "reference": 1344,
      "current": 220
    },
    "booster_source": "fitted_on_train_window"
  },
  "data": {
    "kind": "eia_api_v2",
    "is_real": true,
    "respondent": "PJM",
    "weather_site": "philadelphia_pa",
    "weather_sites": [
      "chicago_il",
      "washington_dc",
      "philadelphia_pa",
      "baltimore_md",
      "newark_nj",
      "pittsburgh_pa",
      "cleveland_oh",
      "columbus_oh",
      "richmond_va"
    ],
    "has_weather_forecast": true,
    "warning": null,
    "panel": {
      "rows": 17589,
      "start_utc": "2024-08-01T21:00:00+00:00",
      "end_utc": "2026-08-04T17:00:00+00:00",
      "missing_demand_hours": 0,
      "has_temperature": true,
      "has_weather_forecast": true
    }
  },
  "monitoring_model": {
    "source": "fitted_on_train_window",
    "reason": "the champion was trained on data up to 2026-08-02T00:00:00+00:00, which covers the reference window opening at 2026-07-19T00:00:00+00:00; scoring it there would be in-sample",
    "champion_version": "3",
    "champion_train_data_end_utc": "2026-08-02T00:00:00+00:00"
  },
  "served_model": {
    "source": "mlflow_registry",
    "uri": "models:/energy-demand-forecaster@champion",
    "registered_model": "energy-demand-forecaster",
    "alias": "champion",
    "version": "3",
    "run_id": "00262eac575e4f168e9324860ed71484",
    "trained_on_real_data": true,
    "data_kind": "eia_api_v2",
    "train_data_end_utc": "2026-08-02T00:00:00+00:00",
    "n_features": 27
  },
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      "severity": "alert",
      "drift_detected": true,
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      "description": "distribution shift in the model inputs (leading indicator)",
      "note": "deterministic calendar columns are reported but excluded from the verdict \u2014 their PSI measures which dates the windows cover, not the data",
      "columns_scored": 14,
      "columns_alerting": 13,
      "columns_warning": 1,
      "columns_excluded_deterministic": [
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        "horizon_h",
        "hour",
        "is_holiday",
        "is_weekend",
        "month"
      ],
      "drifted_share": 0.9286,
      "max_psi": 21.292244,
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          "insufficient_data": false,
          "deterministic": false,
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        },
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        },
        {
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        },
        {
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        },
        {
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        },
        {
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        },
        {
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        {
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        },
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        },
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        },
        {
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        },
        {
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        },
        {
          "column": "demand_same_hour_of_week_mean_4w",
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        },
        {
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